Australia’s apprenticeship and traineeship system is sending mixed signals. New national data show a system that is graduating record numbers of qualified people while the front of the pipeline is tightening. For leaders in VET, industry and government, the message is clear: completions are finally landing in volume, cancellations are easing, but commencements are not keeping pace with demand. Understanding these cross-currents is essential to planning workforce supply through 2026 and beyond.
The National Pulse: More Finishing, Fewer Starting
Across the 12 months to 31 March 2025, 98,405 apprentices and trainees completed their contracts, placing almost one hundred thousand newly qualified workers into the economy. Within that total were 51,145 trade completions—the highest trade completion count in a decade and up 8.7% year on year.
At the same time, the stock of people actively training fell. As at 31 March 2025, there were 320,830 apprentices and trainees in training nationally, down 7.9% compared with a year earlier. Put bluntly, the tail of the pipeline is thickening, but the head has narrowed.
This narrowing shows up most clearly in commencements. On a rolling 12-month view to 31 March 2025, total commencements fell to 146,415, down 9.6% year on year. Trades commencements within that figure fell 4.4%, while non-trades dropped 15.1%.
Within the Quarter: Signals from March 2025
Zooming into the March 2025 quarter itself, the story holds. Trade completions in the quarter rose 11.6%, contributing to 25,165 total completions. On the risk side of the ledger, cancellations and withdrawals in the quarter numbered 23,300, down 13.2% on the March 2024 quarter—a welcome easing in attrition pressure.
Quarterly in-training highlights reinforce the structural picture: overall in-training down 7.9% year on year, with both trades and non-trades contributing to the decline.
Cancellations Are Finally Receding
The 12-month series shows a decisive improvement in attrition. Cancellations and withdrawals over the year to 31 March 2025 fell to 93,675, a 17.4% reduction. This matters for two reasons. First, falling cancellations directly support the surge in completions now flowing into the labour market. Second, better retention reduces wasted training effort and funding—critical at a time when commencements are softer and every starter needs the best chance of finishing.
Who Is in Training Now?
The in-training profile underscores both opportunity and challenge. As at 31 March 2025, 2.2% of all workers were engaged as an apprentice or trainee, and 11.5% of employed workers within trade occupations held apprentice or trainee status. The 12-month highlights provide more texture: 230,145 of those in training were in trades, down 3.2% year on year; 90,665 were in non-trades, down 17.9%. By gender, 238,075 males were in training (down 6.3%), alongside 82,560 females (down 12.1%).
These figures hint at two imperatives: stabilise non-trade pathways that have seen sharper declines, and continue expanding participation from women, whose in-training numbers have fallen faster than men over the year.
Pipeline Dynamics: A System in Two Speeds
Taken together, the datasets suggest a pipeline operating at two speeds. At the back end, investment in supports—ranging from mentoring to targeted incentives—appears to be paying dividends in retention and completions. At the front end, however, commencements are under pressure. The 146,415 commencements recorded for the 12 months to March 2025 represent a significant step down from the pandemic-era surge, especially outside the trades, and they are not yet responding to continued labour demand signalled by employers.
This is exactly the paradox NCVER’s Managing Director has pointed to in recent commentary: strong hiring conditions in many trade occupations are not, on their own, translating into more people starting an apprenticeship or traineeship. The data here provide the evidence base for that observation: fewer starters, more finishers, and a decline in in-training stock.
Quarter-by-Quarter vs Rolling-Year Views
Why look at both? The quarterly picture helps identify turning points. In March 2025, trade completions jumped 11.6% on the quarter, an acceleration consistent with the 12-month rise in trade completions. Cancellations and withdrawals fell 13.2% in the quarter, complementing the 17.4% annual reduction.
The 12-month series, meanwhile, irons out seasonal noise and confirms the deeper structural shifts: commencements have stepped down; in-training is lower overall; completions are stronger, particularly in trades.
What This Means for 2026 Workforce Planning
For employers, the immediate relief is a rising wave of completions. Nearly 100,000 people finished in the year to March 2025, and more than half of those were in trades—directly bolstering capacity in priority occupations. But if commencements remain muted through 2025, today’s completion gains will decelerate in late 2026 as the smaller cohorts now entering reach their final stages. This is the classic pipeline lag: what happens at the front today shows up at the back two to four years later.
For governments and RTOs, the implication is to sustain completion supports while reigniting commencements—especially in non-trades where declines are steepest. That likely means dialling up school-to-VET pathways, simplifying employer onboarding, expanding targeted incentives, and ensuring that marketing and careers advice reflect modern job content and progression, not just traditional images of the trades and traineeships.
Inside the Numbers: Completions, Cancellations, Commencements
The completion's story is unambiguous. In the year to March 2025, completions totalled 98,405, down modestly overall, but trade completions rose strongly to 51,145, reinforcing the decade-high trade result. In the March 2025 quarter alone, there were 25,165 completions, including 15,000 in trades, both solid figures that help relieve pressure in shortage occupations.
Cancellations and withdrawals are now trending down at scale: 93,675 across the latest 12 months, a 17.4% annual drop. This is one of the most encouraging signals in the report, as reductions in mid-contract exits compound into higher completion volumes over time.
Commencements are where the gap remains. The 12-month commencements count of 146,415 is 9.6% lower than the prior year, with the steepest falls in non-trades. If Australia is to keep the completion wave rolling into 2027 and beyond, the front end of the pipeline must be widened again through targeted attraction and streamlined onboarding.
Participation and Equity: Who We Bring In Matters
Participation patterns in the in-training stock deserve attention. Women’s in-training numbers fell 12.1% over the year to 31 March 2025 compared with a 6.3% fall for men, amplifying the case for gender-inclusive attraction and retention strategies in both trades and non-trades. Meanwhile, the sharper declines in non-trades in training and commencements highlight the need to rebalance effort across the broader skills ecosystem—health, community services, hospitality and other non-trade occupations where shortages persist.
Reading the Fine Print: Method and Caution
NCVER’s quarterly figures blend actuals with estimates to account for reporting lags, with revisions common for up to seven quarters. The series also cautions that pandemic-era disruptions and interventions complicate direct comparisons with earlier periods. As always, the right approach is to combine these official indicators with on-the-ground intelligence from employers, RTOs and state training authorities.
The Strategic Takeaway
Australia’s apprenticeship and traineeship system is doing two things at once: graduating more people and shrinking the active training pool. If left unchecked, the latter will blunt the former in the medium term. The policy and practice priorities that flow from this dataset are straightforward:
First, protect and scale what is working on retention. The double act of fewer cancellations and more completions is the fastest way to translate training effort into workforce capacity.
Second, rebuild commencements with precision. The non-trades slide and slower trades intake signal friction that targeted incentives, clearer career messaging, school outreach, and lighter employer admin can reduce.
Third, broaden participation. With women’s in-training numbers falling faster, meaningful progress demands gender-aware program design, visible role models, and supportive workplaces—especially in high-demand trades.
Finally, keep measuring what matters. Quarterly in-training, commencements, cancellations and completions each tell part of the story; together they show a system that can deliver, provided the inflow is restored.
Completions are arriving in force, cancellations are easing, and employers will feel that relief. But commencements are still too low to guarantee a sustained skills pipeline. The March-quarter 2025 data should galvanise a twin focus: stay the course on retention while reigniting attraction—so today’s graduation success becomes tomorrow’s workforce strength.
