As major destination countries like Australia, Canada and the UK move to restrict international student numbers, New Zealand's education sector is experiencing a remarkable recovery bolstered by strong public support for internationalisation. This analysis explores how New Zealand's data-driven approach and focus on social license offer valuable lessons for sustainable international education growth.
In a striking contrast to the growing anti-immigration sentiment sweeping across major international education destinations, New Zealand's higher education sector is charting a distinctly different course in its post-pandemic recovery. Recent data reveals not just a robust return of international students but, more significantly, demonstrates unprecedented public support for continued internationalisation - a factor that could position New Zealand as a leading model for sustainable international education development.
The latest analysis from data specialists Studymove paints an encouraging picture of New Zealand's international education recovery, with approximately 70,000 international students enrolled across the education system in 2023 - representing a remarkable 67% increase over 2022 figures. This resurgence is particularly noteworthy given New Zealand's extended border closure during the COVID-19 pandemic, which lasted significantly longer than most competitor nations, only reopening in mid-2022.
What makes New Zealand's recovery especially interesting is the uneven nature of the rebound across different educational sectors. Universities have emerged as the clear leaders in the recovery effort, recapturing an impressive 86% of their pre-pandemic enrollment levels. This success stands in marked contrast to other sectors, with schools reaching 60% of their 2019 international enrollments, private training establishments (PTEs) achieving 58%, and Te Pukenga (the unified national network of vocational education) at 52%. The English-language sector has faced the most significant challenges, managing to recover only 33% of its pre-pandemic numbers.
The geographic distribution of returning students reveals essential shifts in market dynamics. While Chinese enrollments have recovered to 64% of their 2019 levels across all sectors, Indian student numbers have seen a more modest recovery at 46% of pre-pandemic figures, dropping from approximately 17,300 in 2019 to 7,930 in 2023. This trend has reshaped the composition of New Zealand's international student population, though the university sector presents a notable exception, with Indian enrollments showing stronger recovery in this segment.
The most significant aspect of New Zealand's recovery story lies not in the numbers themselves but in the strong public support underpinning them. Recent research by Education New Zealand Manapou ki te Ao (ENZ) reveals that more than three-quarters of New Zealanders support either maintaining (36%) or increasing (41%) international student numbers. This level of public endorsement stands in stark contrast to the growing anti-immigration sentiment observed in other major destination countries.
The depth of this public support is particularly noteworthy. According to ENZ's findings, 82% of New Zealanders acknowledge international students' contribution to cultural diversity, while 79% recognize their role in helping local students learn about other cultures and ways of life, as well as their positive impact on local businesses. This broad-based support provides a strong foundation for sustainable sector growth and demonstrates the success of New Zealand's approach to building social license for international education.
The significance of New Zealand's achievement becomes even clearer when viewed against the backdrop of declining public support for immigration in other major destination countries. In the United Kingdom, for instance, recent Ipsos tracking research indicates that 55% of Britons want to see immigration reduced, up significantly from 42% in 2022. However, a deeper analysis reveals important nuances in public attitudes, particularly regarding international students.
Research from the Public Policy Institute at King's College London shows that 58% of Britons actually support maintaining or increasing international student numbers, despite general concerns about immigration. This apparent contradiction highlights the critical importance of separating international education from broader immigration debates - a distinction that New Zealand appears to have successfully achieved in public discourse.
The visa approval trends further reinforce New Zealand's recovery trajectory. The number of first-time visas approved for full-fee students nearly doubled in 2023 compared to 2022, with projections for 2024 approaching pre-pandemic levels at an estimated 24,000 approvals. This steady progression suggests a sustainable recovery pattern that aligns with public sentiment and institutional capacity.
Amanda Malu, ENZ's Chief Executive, has highlighted the strategic importance of this public support, noting that it provides a mandate for continued steady growth while ensuring international students receive a warm welcome in New Zealand communities. This approach stands in marked contrast to the more restrictive policies being implemented in countries like Australia, Canada, and the UK, where governments are actively seeking to reduce international student numbers despite the economic and cultural benefits they bring.
New Zealand's experience offers several valuable lessons for other international education destinations:
- The importance of maintaining a clear separation between international education and broader immigration debates in public discourse
- The value of regular, transparent data collection and communication about the impacts and benefits of international education
- The critical role of building and maintaining social license through community engagement and clear demonstration of benefits
- The advantage of taking a measured, sustainable approach to sector recovery rather than pursuing rapid growth at all costs
New Zealand's balanced approach to international education recovery, supported by strong public sentiment and clear data-driven decision-making, could serve as a model for other countries grappling with similar challenges. The country's success in maintaining public support while steadily rebuilding enrollment numbers suggests that sustainable growth in international education is possible when properly managed and communicated.
The contrast between New Zealand's experience and the growing restrictions in other major destination countries raises important questions about the future of international education globally. As traditional destinations become more restrictive, New Zealand's welcoming stance and strong public support could position it to capture a larger share of the global student market, particularly among students seeking stable, welcoming study destinations.
However, the success of New Zealand's approach also comes with responsibilities. As the sector continues to recover, maintaining the balance between growth and public support will be crucial. This will require ongoing attention to quality assurance, student support services, and clear communication about the benefits of internationalisation to local communities.
The New Zealand case study demonstrates that international education can thrive with public support when properly managed and communicated. As other countries grapple with growing anti-immigration sentiment, New Zealand's evidence-based, community-supported approach to international education development offers valuable insights for building sustainable growth in the sector.
