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The latest data is out from the Lowy Institute Poll on how Australians see the world and their place in it. With over 20 years of data, it's Australia's leading survey on foreign affairs. The poll measures sentiment on Australians' views on foreign policy, trade, defence and security, climate change and for the first time in 2024, artificial intelligence (AI). The results paint a complex picture of a nation grappling with shifting global dynamics, economic anxieties, and emerging technologies.
Trust in Global Powers: Japan Shines, China and US Falter
One of the most striking findings is the divergence in trust towards major powers. Australians feel very positive towards Japan, ranking it highest in terms of trust and giving it a 75° on the "feelings thermometer". For the third year in a row, Japan topped a list of six countries as 'Australia's best friend in Asia'.
In contrast, trust in China remains near record lows, with only 17% of Australians saying they trust China 'somewhat' or 'a great deal' to act responsibly in the world. This is only a marginal improvement from the 12% nadir in 2022, and drastically lower than the 52% who trusted China just six years ago in 2018. Today, 53% see China as more of a security threat than an economic partner, a reversal from majority views prior to 2020.
However, Australians are also growing warier of their traditional ally, the United States. Ahead of the 2024 US presidential election, trust in the US has fallen a further 5 points to 56%, now 9 points below 2022 levels. While 83% still see the alliance as important for Australia's security, three-quarters believe it makes it more likely Australia will be drawn into a war in Asia that would not be in its interests. In a hypothetical contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, 68% would prefer to see Biden elected, though 29% support for Trump is higher than for any previous Republican candidate.
Regional Security Concerns Take Center Stage
The spectre of great power competition looms large in the Australian psyche. Cyberattacks from other countries remain the top-ranked critical threat (70%), but a majority of Australians are also seized by the potential for military conflict between the US and China over Taiwan (59%) and in the South China Sea (57%).
In an era of intensifying strategic competition, Australians are looking to broaden and deepen regional security partnerships beyond the US alliance. If forced to choose one country for closer defence ties, a plurality of 45% would select Japan, followed by India (18%), Indonesia (14%) and France (12%).
Japan's position as the most favoured security partner mirrors its status as Australia's most trusted major power. Canberra and Tokyo have steadily expanded defence and intelligence cooperation in recent years, with both viewing the other as their second-most important partner after the United States. Australia's defence ties with India are also on the rise, as highlighted by the Malabar naval exercises and reciprocal access agreement signed in 2020.
While a majority of Australians (51%) prioritise stable relations with China over deterrence, they remain supportive of key deterrence initiatives. Two-thirds (65%) favour acquiring nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS pact, similar to 2022 shortly after the deal was announced.
As regional tensions persist over Taiwan and the South China Sea, the Lowy Poll suggests that the Australian public will likely provide conditional support for policies aimed at balancing China, though not at the cost of severely damaging the bilateral relationship. Fostering closer ties with regional partners such as Japan and India could help bolster this balanced approach.
Migration Attitudes Steady, Even as Immigration Surges
Turning to domestic issues, Australians appear to have maintained a relatively stable perspective on immigration, even as migrant arrivals rebound from Covid-19 lows to record highs. Almost half the population (48%) say the total number of migrants coming to Australia each year is 'too high', while the other half (50%) either think immigration levels are 'about right' (40%) or 'too low' (10%). These results are largely unchanged from pre-pandemic views in 2019.
Notably, while Australians are divided on the rate of migrant inflows, they are overwhelmingly positive about the impact of cultural diversity, a product of decades of immigration. Nine in ten (90%) think Australia's culturally diverse population has been either 'mostly positive' or 'entirely positive' for the country. Only 9% have a negative impression.
This suggests that while there remains a robust debate over the appropriate pace of immigration, there is something of a national consensus around the benefits of multiculturalism for Australia's society and economy. Both major parties have shifted away from the more strident rhetoric on immigration seen in the late 2010s. However, fault lines are still evident, with majority (78%) support for current immigration levels among Labor voters, compared to 46% among Coalition supporters.
The Lowy Poll results come as the Labor government grapples with calls from the business community to lift immigration caps even further to ease labour shortages, while confronting pressure on housing affordability and infrastructure, particularly in major cities. With migration likely to remain a salient political issue, policymakers will need to balance economic imperatives with social cohesion and long-term planning.
Artificial Intelligence: Mapping the New Frontier
For the first time, the 2024 Lowy Poll asked Australians how they perceive the risks versus the benefits of AI. On balance, a slightly larger number of Australians say the potential risks of AI outweigh the potential benefits (52%) compared to those who say the benefits outweigh the risks (45%).
This relatively even split mirrors global sentiment, as publics and policymakers the world over grapple with the implications of game-changing AI technologies like ChatGPT. Interestingly, younger Australians aged 18-29 are more positively disposed, with 55% saying AI's benefits outweigh its risks, compared to just 36% of those aged over 60.
The AI revolution is already reshaping aspects of Australian society, from education to employment to creative industries. A 2023 analysis by CSIRO's Data61 suggested that while 11% of Australian jobs were at high risk of automation, AI technologies would also likely create new jobs amounting to 7.4% of the workforce by 2034.
As in the global context, the challenge for Australia will be to harness the potential of AI to drive innovation and productivity growth, while managing risks around privacy, bias, transparency, job displacement and disinformation. Early moves are underway, with the government announcing a National AI Centre and four AI and Digital Capability Centres in the 2023-24 Budget, as part of efforts to boost sovereign AI capability.
The Lowy Poll data underscores the need for sustained public dialogue and proactive policymaking to build trust and tackle both the upsides and downsides of the AI age. With Australians divided, political leaders will need to work hard to bring the community along and shape a path that leverages AI for inclusive prosperity and social good.
Climate Change: Urgency Remains High Even as Cost of Living Bites
Beyond the world of bytes and algorithms, Australians remain focused on the perils of a warming planet. Climate change ranked as the equal third top critical threat, alongside military conflict in the South China Sea, with 57% deeply concerned, largely unchanged since 2020. A majority (57%) say global warming is a serious and pressing problem, even if addressing it incurs significant costs.
However, with inflation still elevated and interest rates continuing to rise into 2024, cost of living pressures are tempering views on the energy transition. For the first time, more Australians (48%) say reducing energy bills should be the government's priority, a 16-point surge from 2021, eclipsing the 37% who put reducing emissions first (down 18 points).
This reprioritisation is most evident among lower income households, whereas a majority (62%) of those earning over $3000 a week still favour emissions reduction over power bills. The public is now also evenly split on the government's 82% renewable energy by 2030 target, with 41% saying it is 'about right' and 33% seeing it as 'too ambitious'.
Nevertheless, support for most climate policies remains robust, even if it has softened slightly for certain measures. A vast majority (87%) endorse subsidies for renewable energy, in line with the government's $1.5 billion plan to boost renewable technology manufacturing. However, backing for a more ambitious emissions reduction target and emissions trading has fallen marginally.
Perhaps surprisingly, given Australia's abundance of coal and sun, a clear majority (61%) now support the use of nuclear power alongside other energy sources, a marked shift from majority opposition a decade ago.
Labor has so far deftly managed competing imperatives, legislating an enlarged 2030 emissions target and more stringent Safeguard Mechanism for high-emitting industries, while also maintaining support for coal and gas exports. But the Lowy Poll signals the political and fiscal constraints of pursuing aggressive decarbonisation as Australians feel the pinch.
The Sweet Spot of Australian Diplomacy
Managing director of the Lowy Institute, Michael Fullilove, describes the task of Australian foreign policy as expanding the overlap between "the things we want to do, the things we can afford to do, and the things we can get away with". In 2024, the Lowy Poll suggests the government has so far hit the sweet spot in the eyes of most Australians.
A majority (56%) rate Labor as doing a 'good job' overall on foreign affairs, with voters most positive about the handling of the US alliance and ties with Pacific and Southeast Asian neighbours. Performance on China is seen as middling, along with the domestic economy. Promoting human rights abroad and responding to crises like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are perceived as weak spots.
As the government looks to the May 2025 election, it appears to have built a permissive consensus around its Indo-Pacific strategy of strengthening regional engagement and partnerships while pushing back against Chinese assertiveness in tandem with the US and allies. With Labor regaining a lead in the polls into 2024, continuity in Australia's external orientation appears likely should it secure a second term.
However, the Lowy Poll also points to speed bumps ahead. Economic optimism has slumped near all-time lows, even as Australia has outperformed most advanced economies. Heightened threat perceptions and sharpening tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea will test Australia's capacity to strike a balance between strategic vigilance and diplomatic agility. Politically, fierce debates over defence budgets, energy costs and migration levels will continue to flare.
Charting Australia's course in an increasingly turbulent and contested world is one of the most complex policy challenges of our time. The Lowy Institute Poll illuminates how Australians are making sense of this dizzying landscape of geopolitical uncertainty, technological disruption, and planetary risk. It reveals a nation alert to the perils on the horizon, pragmatic about what's required to safeguard its interests, and feeling its way to firmer ground.
For more information, read Lowy Institute Poll 2024 Report
