Australia’s international education sector has long been a cornerstone of the country’s economy, contributing billions annually and playing a key role in filling skills shortages. Recent polling commissioned by Universities Australia has confirmed that public perception aligns with this reality, with a majority of voters in key battleground electorates viewing international students as significant drivers of economic growth. As the government prepares to implement new caps on international student enrolments, the polling data provides insight into how these measures may be received and the potential impact on Australia’s economy and higher education sector.
The Polling and its Key Findings
The polling, conducted between June 27 and July 8, 2024, surveyed 1,508 voters across 11 battleground electorates in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia. These electorates were specifically chosen for their proximity to major university campuses and their large international student populations, offering a representative snapshot of voter sentiment in regions most affected by international education.
The results were striking:
- 61% of voters believe international students are major drivers of economic growth.
- 68% recognize the important role international students play in addressing Australia’s skills shortages.
- 75% of respondents agreed that students who remain in Australia post-graduation contribute significantly to the country’s skilled workforce and long-term economic prosperity.
These figures demonstrate broad recognition of the vital role that international students play not only in Australia’s education system but also in its economy and workforce. With universities facing declining government funding, international student fees are often used to reinvest in teaching, research, and infrastructure, helping to sustain the quality of education across the country. This reinvestment has become crucial as universities grapple with financial pressures, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent global economic challenges.
The Economic Value of International Students
Australia’s international education sector is worth nearly AUD$50 billion annually, and it supports approximately 250,000 jobs across the country. In 2023, international students accounted for more than half of Australia’s GDP growth, underscoring their significance to the nation’s economic performance. This extraordinary contribution, however, is now under threat due to proposed legislative changes that could cap international student numbers.
The Education Services for Overseas Students Amendment (Quality and Integrity) Bill 2024, which has already passed the lower house and is now with the Senate for consideration, introduces restrictions on international student enrolments. The bill has sparked intense debate, with Universities Australia warning that these limits could result in a $4.3 billion economic hit and the loss of more than 14,000 jobs in the university sector alone. This figure does not include the ripple effects for smaller businesses and local economies that rely on the spending power of international students.
Public Perception of International Students’ Role
The polling results revealed that voters across the political spectrum largely view international students in a positive light. Those intending to vote for the Greens or Labour were the most supportive, with a majority of respondents recognising the contributions of international students to economic growth and the country’s skilled workforce. Even among Coalition voters, 52% expressed positive views about international students, demonstrating broad, cross-party support for their role in Australia’s future.
However, there were mixed opinions regarding the impact of incoming caps. While 51% of voters believed that the caps would improve housing affordability — an issue of significant concern in many urban areas — others feared that the caps could negatively affect the quality of education, particularly in research and innovation. A substantial number of respondents expressed concern that limiting the number of international students could reduce universities’ capacity to conduct groundbreaking research, as the income from international fees often helps fund research initiatives.
Addressing the Skills Gap
One of the most pressing reasons voters support international students is their role in addressing Australia’s skills shortages. With the country facing critical gaps in industries such as healthcare, engineering, and information technology, international students represent a vital pipeline of talent. Many of these students remain in Australia after graduation, filling roles that would otherwise go unfilled due to a lack of domestic candidates.
The polling found that 68% of voters believe international students are crucial for addressing these skills shortages. This is particularly true in electorates with strong university ties, where international graduates often find employment in local industries. These graduates not only contribute to the economy by working in high-demand fields, but they also help alleviate the pressure on Australia’s immigration system by transitioning from student visas to work visas, thus ensuring a smoother path to permanent residency.
The Impact of Visa Processing Delays
Despite the positive public sentiment toward international students, the sector has been grappling with significant challenges related to visa processing. Universities Australia partly attributes the 23% drop in visa grants over the past year to the introduction of Ministerial Direction 107, which prioritises visa processing for students applying to low-risk institutions. While this directive, implemented in December 2023, was intended to streamline the visa process, it has inadvertently slowed visa approvals for students applying to other institutions, creating a backlog and increasing the number of visa cancellations.
At the recent Australian Financial Review (AFR) higher education summit, education minister Jason Clare acknowledged these issues, signalling that the incoming caps would likely replace Ministerial Direction 107. While the details of the caps are yet to be fully revealed, Clare’s comments have sparked concern within the sector about the long-term impacts of further limiting international student numbers.
Potential Consequences of the Caps
Universities Australia estimates that the introduction of caps could cause significant damage to the sector, with an estimated loss of AUD$4.3 billion and over 14,000 jobs. These figures represent a worst-case scenario, where the combination of visa delays and enrolment restrictions decimates the international student population, resulting in fewer tuition fees, reduced funding for research, and decreased support for campus infrastructure.
While a majority of voters recognise the value of international students, they are also keenly aware of the challenges posed by housing affordability. Australia’s booming property market, particularly in cities such as Sydney and Melbourne, has made it increasingly difficult for both domestic and international students to find affordable accommodation. The polling found that 51% of voters believe that capping international student numbers could help alleviate pressure on the housing market, a concern that is especially prominent in electorates with large student populations.
However, the perceived benefits of such a cap may be short-lived. Housing affordability is a complex issue influenced by a variety of factors beyond student numbers, including interest rates, construction costs, and zoning regulations. Limiting the number of international students may provide temporary relief, but it is unlikely to address the underlying structural issues driving the housing crisis.
The Role of Universities and the Government
As the debate over international student caps continues, universities are calling for a more balanced approach that recognises the importance of international students to Australia’s economy, workforce, and global standing. Universities Australia has urged the government to reconsider its stance, emphasising that the sector cannot afford further disruptions, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
International students not only bring economic benefits but also enhance the cultural diversity and vibrancy of university campuses. They foster global connections and collaborations, which are increasingly important in a world that values innovation, research, and international partnerships. Reducing the number of international students could undermine Australia’s reputation as a leading destination for education and research, potentially pushing students to seek alternatives in countries like Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom.
Moving Forward: Balancing Economic Growth and Policy
As Australia looks to the future, it must find a way to balance the economic benefits of international students with the concerns of voters regarding housing affordability and job security. While capping international student numbers may provide some short-term relief, the long-term consequences could be far-reaching, not only for universities but also for the broader economy.
The government, in collaboration with universities and other stakeholders, must develop a comprehensive strategy that addresses the challenges facing the international education sector while ensuring that Australia remains an attractive destination for students from around the world. This includes improving visa processing times, increasing support for housing and accommodation, and maintaining the country’s competitive edge in the global education market.
The recent polling commissioned by Universities Australia offers valuable insight into how voters perceive international students and their contribution to the economy. While a majority of voters recognise the importance of international students in driving economic growth and addressing skills shortages, there are mixed feelings about the potential benefits of capping enrolments.
As the government prepares to introduce new caps on international student numbers, it must weigh the potential economic costs against the perceived benefits of addressing housing affordability and job security. The international education sector is too important to Australia’s economy to be jeopardised by short-term policy decisions. By working together, universities, the government, and other stakeholders can ensure that Australia continues to thrive as a global leader in education and research while addressing the needs and concerns of its citizens.
