An analysis of the National Centre for Vocational Education Research’s Government-funded students and courses report for January to September 2025, examining declining enrolment figures against population growth, the concentration of losses by qualification level and occupational group, jurisdictional variation, and the implications for workforce development and skills supply
The National Picture: A 6.6 Per Cent Decline in Government-Funded VET Students
The National Centre for Vocational Education Research has published its Government-funded students and courses report for the period January to September 2025. The data reveal that 1,027,380 students undertook government-funded training in Australia during the reporting period. This represents a decrease of 72,225 students, or 6.6 per cent, from the same period in 2024. Student numbers decreased in all states and territories except South Australia, which recorded an increase of 2,615 students (4.0 per cent) to 67,915, and Western Australia, which recorded an increase of 1,875 students (1.6 per cent) to 118,190.
Source: NCVER, Government-funded students and courses – January to September 2025 (ncver.edu.au).
The report covers all Commonwealth and state or territory government-funded training delivered by technical and further education institutes, other government providers such as universities, private providers, and community education providers. The data is received in four cumulative submissions across the calendar year, and the January to September release represents the third of these submissions. The National Centre for Vocational Education Research notes that data will be revised following subsequent submissions, meaning that the final full-year figures may differ from those reported in this release.
The scale of the decline is significant by any measure, but it becomes particularly stark when placed in the context of Australia’s population trajectory. Australian Bureau of Statistics data indicates that Australia’s population has grown by approximately 19 per cent since the mid-2010s, driven by a combination of natural increase and net overseas migration. A growing population, all other things being equal, would be expected to produce growth in participation in government-funded training, particularly in a period of widely reported skills shortages across multiple industry sectors. The fact that government-funded VET student numbers are instead declining — and, as the data shows, declining to levels that approach or fall below those recorded a decade ago — raises fundamental questions about the effectiveness of current funding, policy, and delivery settings.
Source: ABS, National, state and territory population statistics (abs.gov.au).
Nationally Recognised Qualifications: The Core of the Decline
Nationally recognised qualifications comprise the bulk of government-funded training activity, encompassing both training package qualifications and accredited qualifications. The report records 925,600 students in nationally recognised qualifications in the January to September 2025 period. This represents a decrease of 68,840 students, or 6.9 per cent, from the same period in 2024. The report notes that, while the 2025 figure represents a decrease from 2024, it remains an increase of 48,430 students (5.5 per cent) above the same period in 2019.
Source: NCVER, Government-funded students and courses – January to September 2025 (ncver.edu.au).
The time-series data published in the report provides important additional context. The January to September student count for nationally recognised qualifications peaked at 994,440 in 2024, following a sustained period of growth from 838,225 in 2018. The 2025 figure of 925,600 represents a sharp reversal of that growth trajectory. Looking further back, the January to September figures for 2015 stood at 924,230. The 2025 figure of 925,600 is therefore only marginally above the level recorded a full decade earlier, a period during which the Australian population grew substantially. When measured on a per-capita basis, the effective rate of participation in government-funded nationally recognised qualifications is materially lower in 2025 than it was in 2015.
The majority of the decline in nationally recognised qualifications was concentrated at the Certificate IV level, which fell by 33,430 students or 15.3 per cent, and the Certificate III level, which fell by 29,790 students or 5.7 per cent. These are not marginal qualification levels. Certificate III is the qualification most commonly associated with trade and vocational entry-level occupations, and Certificate IV is a common pathway qualification for supervisory, management, and specialist roles. Declines at these levels have direct implications for the pipeline of qualified workers entering the labour market.
Qualification Enrolments Drop Below 2015 Levels
The enrolment data, which captures the total number of qualification enrolments rather than the number of individual students, paints a similarly concerning picture. There were 1,019,080 enrolments in nationally recognised qualifications in the January to September 2025 period. This represents a decrease of 97,500 enrolments, or 8.7 per cent, from the same period in 2024. The enrolment decline is larger in both absolute and proportional terms than the student count decline, suggesting that existing students are enrolling in fewer qualifications on average.
Source: NCVER, Government-funded students and courses – January to September 2025 (ncver.edu.au).
Qualification enrolment decreases were recorded across all states and territories except South Australia, which increased by 1,905 enrolments (3.0 per cent) to 65,290, Western Australia, which increased by 245 enrolments (0.2 per cent) to 114,670, and the Northern Territory, which increased by 1,535 enrolments (15.0 per cent) to 11,795. The concentration of growth in only three jurisdictions, two of which represent relatively small proportions of the national VET student population, underscores the breadth of the decline across the remainder of the country.
The time-series context is particularly instructive. The January to September enrolment figure for 2015 was 1,066,425. The 2025 figure of 1,019,080 represents a fall below the level recorded a decade earlier. In a context of significant population growth — approximately 19 per cent since the mid-2010s — this means that the effective per-capita rate of government-funded qualification enrolment is substantially lower than it was in 2015. Government-funded qualification enrolments have gone backwards in absolute terms while the population has grown by almost a fifth. The implications for workforce development, industry capacity, and the training system’s contribution to economic productivity are significant.
Only Two States Record Student Growth: South Australia and Western Australia
The jurisdictional breakdown of the data reveals a striking concentration of losses. South Australia and Western Australia were the only states to record increases in government-funded VET student numbers in the January to September 2025 period. South Australia recorded an increase of 2,615 students (4.0 per cent), while Western Australia recorded an increase of 1,875 students (1.6 per cent). All other states and territories experienced declines.
Source: NCVER, Government-funded students and courses – January to September 2025 (ncver.edu.au).
The reasons for the jurisdictional divergence are not addressed in the NCVER report itself, which is a data publication rather than a policy analysis. However, the pattern invites consideration of the different funding settings, subsidy levels, provider landscapes, and policy priorities that operate in each jurisdiction. State and territory governments fund different mixes of training types to meet their jurisdictional needs, as the report notes, and the outcomes recorded in the data reflect the cumulative effect of those funding and policy decisions.
Industry commentary has drawn particular attention to the scale of reductions in funded training places in certain jurisdictions, including significant cuts to government-funded VET provision that have been reported in several states. The interaction between state fiscal positions and the capacity to maintain or expand government-funded VET provision is a structural issue that extends beyond any single budget cycle. Where states face budgetary constraints that result in reduced training investment, the effects are visible in the enrolment data with a directness that other policy outcomes may not exhibit.
Priority Cohorts: Mixed Outcomes Amid an Overall Decline
The report provides data on changes in participation among selected priority cohorts enrolled in nationally recognised qualifications. Compared with the same period in 2024, several priority cohorts recorded increases, including students with a disability (up 7,960), Indigenous students (up 1,695), and students at school (up 945). All other priority cohorts declined, including females (down 46,715), full-time students (down 7,025), students in regional and remote areas (down 15,430), unemployed students (down 6,035), and young people under 25 (down 2,490).
Source: NCVER, Government-funded students and courses – January to September 2025 (ncver.edu.au).
The growth in participation among students with a disability and Indigenous students is a positive development, suggesting that targeted policy measures and support programs may be having an effect in improving access for these cohorts. However, the broader picture is one of declining participation across most demographic groups. The decline in female participation is particularly notable given its scale — a reduction of 46,715 students from a single priority cohort represents a substantial absolute contraction. The decline in regional and remote student participation, at 15,430 students, is also significant in the context of ongoing workforce shortages in regional industries and the policy emphasis on regional skills development.
The report notes that figures for the unemployed cohort should be interpreted in relation to the unemployment rate at the time. The decline of 6,035 unemployed students may therefore reflect, at least in part, the relatively low unemployment rate prevailing during the reporting period rather than a reduction in access or willingness to participate in government-funded training. However, the interaction between employment conditions and training participation is complex, and the decline may also reflect reduced incentives or reduced availability of funded places for job seekers in specific jurisdictions.
Provider Type: TAFE and Private Providers, Both Contract
The report provides a breakdown of students in nationally recognised qualifications by provider type. Nationally, the majority of students continue to undertake government-funded qualifications at TAFE institutes, which enrolled 511,325 students in the January to September 2025 period. This represents a decrease of 6.5 per cent from the same period in 2024. Private training providers enrolled 326,335 students, a decrease of 9.5 per cent from the same period in 2024. Other providers, including universities, schools, community education providers, and enterprise providers, enrolled 105,225 students, a decrease of approximately 2.0 per cent.
Source: NCVER, Government-funded students and courses – January to September 2025 (ncver.edu.au).
The decline among private training providers, at 9.5 per cent, is proportionally larger than the decline among TAFE institutes. This differential may reflect changes in government funding allocations, subsidy settings, or eligibility criteria that affect private providers disproportionately. It may also reflect market dynamics, including the exit of providers from the government-funded market in response to regulatory, financial, or competitive pressures. The time-series data shows that private provider student numbers peaked at 368,365 in the January to September 2023 period and have declined for two consecutive years, falling to 326,335 in 2025. This decline of over 42,000 students in two years represents a material contraction of the private provider segment of the government-funded training market.
The TAFE institute figures also warrant attention. The January to September 2025 figure of 511,325 represents a decline from the 2024 peak of 547,120 but remains above the 2019 figure of 495,225. The TAFE sector has therefore retained some of the growth achieved in the post-2019 period, while the private provider sector has given back a larger proportion of its gains. The divergence in the trajectory between TAFE and private providers is a structural development with implications for the composition and competitiveness of the government-funded training market.
Occupational Groups: Universal Decline Across All Categories
The occupational group analysis reveals that qualification enrolments declined across all occupational categories in the January to September 2025 period compared with the same period in 2024. The largest absolute decline was recorded in Community and Personal Service Workers, which fell by 29,830 enrolments or 8.8 per cent. The second-largest decline was in Clerical and Administrative Workers, which fell by 28,315 enrolments or 25.3 per cent. The report notes that the decline in Clerical and Administrative Workers was mostly driven by a 37.1 per cent decrease in New South Wales.
Source: NCVER, Government-funded students and courses – January to September 2025 (ncver.edu.au).
Other occupational groups also recorded declines, including Professionals (down 8,295), Technicians and Trades Workers (down 6,490), Sales Workers (down 6,105), Managers (down 5,770), Labourers (down 3,180), and Machinery Operators and Drivers (down 3,070). The universality of the decline — with no occupational group recording an increase — indicates that the contraction in government-funded training is not confined to a specific industry or occupational segment. It is a system-wide phenomenon.
The implications for workforce supply are direct. In a period where multiple industry sectors report persistent skills shortages, the decline in government-funded training across all occupational groups represents a contraction in the pipeline of qualified workers that the VET system produces. The 25.3 per cent decline in Clerical and Administrative Worker training enrolments is of a magnitude that may have observable effects on the supply of qualified workers in administrative and business support roles, particularly in New South Wales, where the contraction was most acute.
Training Package Analysis: Business Services Down 29 Per Cent, Only Electrotechnology Grows
The training package analysis presented in the report reveals that the training package with the highest enrolment count remains Community Services, with 216,760 enrolments representing 23.6 per cent of all training package qualification enrolments. Construction, Plumbing and Services Integrated Framework was the second-largest, with 100,315 enrolments (10.9 per cent). Among the training packages with the largest absolute enrolment changes, the only increase was recorded in Electrotechnology, which grew by 5,055 enrolments or 7.9 per cent from the same period in 2024.
Source: NCVER, Government-funded students and courses – January to September 2025 (ncver.edu.au).
The largest decrease was in Business Services, which fell by 27,445 enrolments or 29.1 per cent. Community Services fell by 22,950 enrolments. Health fell by 4,455 enrolments, Tourism, Travel and Hospitality by 4,295, Property Services by 4,195, Retail Services by 3,500, Financial Services by 3,410, Agriculture, Horticulture and Conservation and Land Management by 2,950, and Construction, Plumbing and Services Integrated Framework by 2,860. The breadth and depth of these declines, combined with the fact that only one training package recorded growth, reinforces the systemic nature of the enrolment contraction.
The 29.1 per cent decline in Business Services is particularly notable. Business Services qualifications encompass a wide range of administrative, management, and professional support functions that underpin organisational capability across every industry sector. A decline of nearly 30 per cent in a single reporting period represents a substantial reduction in the volume of government-funded training being delivered in this area. The decline in Community Services enrolments, while proportionally smaller, is significant in absolute terms, given that Community Services accounts for nearly a quarter of all training package enrolments and supports workforce supply in aged care, disability services, child protection, and related fields where demand is growing.
A Structural Shift: Growth in Non-Qualification and Shorter-Form Training
While the headline figures record significant declines in government-funded VET and nationally recognised qualifications, the data also reveals areas of growth within the broader training landscape. Stand-alone subjects within the nationally recognised VET category recorded a marginal increase of 175 students (1.1 per cent) to 15,980. Non-nationally recognised VET programs, including higher education programs, increased by 1,655 students (5.3 per cent) to 32,755. Locally developed programs with at least one nationally recognised subject increased by 3,195 students (6.5 per cent) to 52,575. Courses within the non-nationally recognised category recorded the most striking increase, rising by 7,090 students or 49.4 per cent to 21,460.
Source: NCVER, Government-funded students and courses – January to September 2025 (ncver.edu.au).
These growth areas, while smaller in absolute terms than the qualification declines, point to a structural shift in the composition of government-funded training activity. The growth in stand-alone subjects, locally developed programs, and non-nationally recognised courses may reflect a reorientation of government funding toward shorter, more targeted training interventions and away from full qualification programs. It may also reflect learner preferences, employer demand for specific skill sets rather than complete qualifications, or jurisdictional policy decisions to fund a broader range of training types.
The significance of this shift should not be underestimated. While shorter training programs and skill sets have a legitimate and important role in workforce development, they do not produce the same qualification outcomes as full training package qualifications. A VET system in which qualification enrolments decline while non-qualification and locally developed training grow is a system undergoing a compositional transformation. For industries that require nationally recognised qualifications as a condition of employment, licensing, or professional registration, the decline in qualification enrolments represents a direct reduction in the supply of workers who meet the formal entry requirements of the occupation, regardless of what is happening in other parts of the training landscape.
The Population-Enrolment Disconnect: Growing Demand, Shrinking Supply
The decline in government-funded VET student numbers and qualification enrolments must be assessed against the backdrop of Australia’s population growth. Australian Bureau of Statistics data records that Australia’s estimated resident population has grown from approximately 23.8 million at 30 June 2015 to over 27 million by mid-2025, representing growth of approximately 19 per cent over the decade. The Australian population in 2025 is materially larger than it was when the government-funded VET qualification enrolment count was at comparable absolute levels.
Source: ABS, National, state and territory population statistics (abs.gov.au).
The consequence is a widening gap between the size of the population that might be expected to participate in government-funded training and the number of people who are actually doing so. Qualification enrolments in the January to September 2025 period (1,019,080) are below the level recorded in the January to September 2015 period (1,066,425), despite the population being approximately 19 per cent larger. If government-funded qualification enrolments had grown in line with population, the 2025 figure would need to be in the order of 1.27 million rather than 1.02 million. The shortfall between the population-adjusted expectation and the actual enrolment figure is substantial.
This disconnect is not a theoretical concern. It is visible in the skills shortage data reported by workforce planning agencies, in employer surveys, in industry consultation reports, and in the persistent vacancy rates across sectors such as health and social care, construction, trades, hospitality, and technology. The question that arises from the data is whether the current funding, policy, and delivery settings for government-funded VET are adequate to meet the workforce development challenge that Australia faces. A system that is producing fewer qualified graduates from a growing population, at a time when skills shortages are widely acknowledged, is a system in which the relationship between investment and outcome warrants urgent examination.
Incentive Structures, Participation, and the Value Proposition of Training
Industry commentary in response to the published data has raised questions about the relationship between the cost of training to the learner, the perceived value of the training experience, and the incentive to commence and complete a qualification. The expansion of fee-free and heavily subsidised training programs, while designed to increase access and reduce financial barriers, has prompted discussion within the sector about whether the removal of direct cost to the learner may, counterintuitively, affect participation behaviour and completion outcomes.
The NCVER report itself does not address this question directly, and it notes that while Fee-Free TAFE activity falls within the scope of reporting, it is not separately collected and therefore cannot be identified in the data. This means that the published figures do not permit a direct comparison between the participation and completion rates of fee-free learners and those of learners who contribute to the cost of their training. The absence of this disaggregation is a limitation of the current data collection framework that restricts the ability to assess the impact of fee-free policies on participation behaviour.
Nevertheless, the aggregate data creates a tension that is difficult to resolve without further analysis. The expansion of fee-free and subsidised training programs was intended, among other objectives, to increase participation in the VET system. The NCVER data for January to September 2025 records a decrease, not an increase, in participation. Multiple factors may contribute to this outcome, including changes in funded place allocations, shifts in eligibility criteria, provider capacity constraints, and labour market conditions that draw potential learners into employment rather than training. However, the data does not support the proposition that fee-free and subsidised programs have, in aggregate, arrested the decline in government-funded VET participation.
The broader economic principle at play is well understood: where something is provided at no direct cost, the recipient may assign less value to it than they would if required to make a financial contribution. This principle does not, by itself, determine whether fee-free training policies are sound or unsound, but it does provide a framework for understanding the sector-level observation that student engagement, persistence, and completion may be influenced by the extent to which the learner has a direct financial stake in the outcome. The data invite consideration of whether the current balance between access and incentive is producing the participation and completion outcomes that the policy settings were designed to achieve.
Provider Market Dynamics and Training Quality
The decline in government-funded training volumes has implications for the training provider market. Registered training organisations that derive a significant proportion of their revenue from government-funded training are directly affected by reductions in funded places and declines in enrolments. The 9.5 per cent decline in private provider student numbers is of a magnitude that, if sustained, will create financial pressure on providers that are dependent on government-funded activity. Where providers exit the market — whether through withdrawal, de-registration, or strategic redirection toward fee-for-service or international delivery — the result is a contraction in the supply of training available to learners, particularly in regional areas where provider choice is already limited.
The interaction between declining volumes and training quality is also a relevant consideration. Providers operating under financial pressure may reduce investment in the infrastructure, staffing, and quality assurance processes that underpin compliant and effective training delivery. These reductions may not be immediately visible in enrolment data but can have material effects on the quality of training outcomes over time. The decline in regional and remote student participation recorded in the data — down 15,430 students — may reflect, in part, supply-side contraction as providers reduce or withdraw services in areas where the volume of funded training is insufficient to sustain operations.
The Absence of Public Commentary
A notable feature of the release of this data is the absence of a government media release or public statement accompanying the publication. Data publications of this nature, when they record significant movements in system performance indicators, would ordinarily attract public commentary from the portfolio minister or department. The decline of 72,225 students — 6.6 per cent of the government-funded VET student population — and the fall in qualification enrolments to below 2015 levels represent movements on a scale that are material to the assessment of government training policy effectiveness. The decision to publish the data without accompanying commentary leaves the interpretation of the figures to sector participants and external observers.
Conclusion: A Dataset That Demands Attention
The NCVER Government-funded students and courses report for January to September 2025 presents a dataset that records a broad-based decline across the government-funded VET system. Student numbers are down 6.6 per cent nationally. Qualification enrolments are down 8.7 per cent and have fallen below the level recorded in 2015. Declines are recorded across all occupational groups, across most jurisdictions, across most priority cohorts, and across both TAFE and private provider segments. Only South Australia and Western Australia recorded student number growth. Only the Electrotechnology recorded training package enrolment growth.
At the same time, growth is recorded in stand-alone subjects, locally developed programs, and non-nationally recognised courses, suggesting a structural shift toward shorter and non-qualification training that does not compensate for the decline in qualification enrolments.
The data does not, by itself, identify the causes of the decline or prescribe policy responses. However, the scale, breadth, and consistency of the decline — set against population growth of approximately 19 per cent over the past decade and persistent workforce skills shortages — creates a compelling evidentiary basis for examination of the funding, policy, subsidy, and delivery settings that shape government-funded VET participation. The full NCVER report, including state and territory disaggregations and additional data available through DataBuilder and VOCSTATS, is publicly accessible at ncver.edu.au.
